A Model for Optimizing Iran's Agricultural Exports: Emphasis on Regional Comparative Advantages and Water Resources Sustainability

Document Type : Scientific Views

Authors

1 Associate Professor, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization, Tehran, Iran.

2 Professor, National Plant Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization, Tehran, Iran,

10.22092/irn.2025.134399

Abstract

Iran’s agricultural exports rose by over 177 percent, from approximately 3.75 million tons to 10.4 million tons, between 2011 and 2024. This growth has occurred despite the fact that 94% of Iran’s land area lies in arid and semi-arid regions, and the country has experienced a 30% decline in renewable water resources over the past two decades. Against this backdrop, the present study examines the status of Iran’s agricultural exports and proposes a tailored export model based on region-specific comparative advantage indicators, while safeguarding scarce water resources. The model integrates the economic value of virtual water (estimated at a shadow price of USD 1.2 per cubic meter) and emphasizes environmental considerations. The findings indicate that applying localized agricultural comparative advantages uniformly at the national scale results in an annual waste of 2.8 billion cubic meters of the country’s scarce water resources. In contrast, the proposed framework—dividing the country into seven macro-ecological zones—offers the potential to increase the value of agricultural exports by 42% while prioritizing water conservation. Overall, the results of this ecological-agricultural zoning underscore that agricultural policy and water resource management in Iran cannot rely on a homogenized, nationwide approach to comparative and economic advantage. Instead, each region must develop specific production and export strategies that reflect its unique climatic conditions, water resources, soil characteristics, and comparative strengths. Such a differentiated approach not only enhances productivity and sustainability but also significantly improves the resilience of the agricultural sector to climate change and water scarcity.

Keywords

References

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Iran Nature
Volume 10, Issue 3 - Serial Number 52
September and October 2025
Pages 9-17

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